I know that it is the talk of the day so far on sports radio but Memphis is going to get beaten tonight.  I have them winning my bracket and I love the athletes they have but Michigan St can match them in almost every area. 

As I look over the matchups the Spartans will have their hands full at the speed of the game that Memphis wants to play because nobody in the BIG TEN plays that way.  That’s  a big thing.  The BIG TEN is man to man pressure defense and a very physical game but I can safely say that no team in the BIG TEN has the athletes Memphis has and when they are on their game they are very tough to beat.  To a player however Michigan ST can matchup with Memphis.  Derrick Rose is great but he can be handled by the trio of ST guards who will run at him.  Douglas Roberts will have athletic guards going at him all night and playing physical against him.  Inside though is where Joey Dorsey really has to set himself apart from ST and I don’t know if he can.  He is a menacing defensive player, like a college Ben Wallace in his prime, but he struggles on offense and can’t hit foul shots.

Memphis is rarely played close and can’t afford to play close because of their inability to consistently hit foul shots.  If Michigan St can keep the game at their pace and get some easy buckets they will very likely win this game and I predict they’ll win by 7 in a game closer than the score indicates.  Take it to Vegas…

The other games tonight will be equally exciting with Kansas beating Villanova in a closer than expected game.  Stanford will beat Texas because Abrams will struggle from the outside for Texas and Augustin will keep playing under expectations.  Davidson will play with Wisconsin until the second half when Wisconsin will wear them down and beat them by 10-15 points. 

Sure I thought that West Virginia would beat Xavier but overtime was close and I called that Louisville game exactly as it played out.  I’m telling you to take these to Vegas because I know what i’m talking about.

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I haven’t lost any final four teams yet and that’s because none of the top seeds have been beaten yet but I expect some things to change this weekend.  One of the top 4 seeds will lose and I’m going to tell you who it is as well as who the final 4 will truly be.

UCLA will crush Western Kentucky but North Carolina will face a very game Washington St. team that nobody is giving a chance.  The Pac 10 is strong and Washington St has played UCLA a couple times this year to prep them for this.  What North Carolina is going to find is a very prepared team that will do all they can to control the tempo and limit Carolina to one shot each possession.  I can see Washington St beating them but sadly they will fall just short because of the ability of the Carolina players to beat them one on one. 

In the other games, I love Louisville to beat Tennessee and I don’t think it will be a very good game either.  Louisville will win by 10 with Tennessee making a run late that will be held off by the foul shooting of the Cardinals.  Tennessee is lacking the guard play right now that they would need to play with Louisville who has really come together since David Padgett came back.  That kid has been hurt more than Marcus Camby since he got to the pros.

In the other game I look for West Virginia to give Xavier fits.  West Virginia showed that they could play small or big with Duke and beat them rather easily.  Xavier will have a match for Joe Alexander with big Duncan but West Virginia is really coming together right now.  Xavier is a great team and they play very well together.  I really like their team defense.

I like Carolina, Louisville, UCLA and Xavier.

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I had written one of the best blogs of my life the other day, one that would have possibly won a pulitzer.  Instead it is somewhere lost in Lawnmower Man land somewhere and can never be reproduced.  I won’t even attempt another try at perfection.

So, I’m picking Memphis this season to win it all.  I watched them play on Saturday and they didn’t look good at all but I was forced to do it.  I’m trying to win my bracket and in order to do that you have to be a little risky in some of your selections.  Nobody picks Memphis to win it all because of the strength of UCLA, North Carolina and Kansas so I had to do it.  With only 16 teams left I fell I have a decent chance to get it right but i need someone to beat UCLA, North Carolina and Kansas for it to happen.

I love watching Davidson play basketball.  Georgetown owned them for most of the game but Davidson never gave up.  The Hoyas knew that Davidson had to get the ball to Curry to have a chance and they still couldn’t stop him.  Stephen Curry is a pro and that is the only way to describe him.  He can shoot with a hand in his face and has faced all the gimmick defenses that are out there.  Davidson will have a chance against any team that tries to keep the score low but will lose the minute a team gets them in a up and down scramble game.  Georgetown’s tempo is what kept Davidson in it because Davidson’s best player was better than Georgetown’s when it came down to it and Curry couldn’t be matched possession for possession.  I think Davidson will give Wisconsin a run for their money for a while but Bo Ryan is a very underrated coach and Curry will be guarded by Flowers the entire game.  Georgetown did great for 25 minutes but with Curry the light went on and nothing could stop him.  I think Wisconsin wins going away in this one.  Does Kansas love where they are at or what?  They play a 16, 8, 12 and then possibly a 10 in Davidson on their run to the Final 4.  I’m a Bill Self hater for how he left my beloved ILLINI even though i understand why he did what he did, so I’m not happy about this but Kansas is a great team that is very fun to watch and has a lot of talent.

 I’ll break down some other games and teams tomorrow….i love this stuff.

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I’ve loved having Bobby Knight on ESPN and getting more of his personal insight into basketball and I’m even more convinced that he’ll be back in coaching soon.  The other night he threw something out there that I hadn’t thought much about before.  He was asked what the most important trait a player could have and he mentioned it was concentration.  It got me thinking about a lot of things that I’ve looked at as a player/coach.

 I’m a big Illini fan as I’ve mentioned many times before.  Illinois has a player named Brian Randle who is an amazing athlete and good at a number of things in the game.  He can jump, run, finish at the hoop and guard nearly every position on the floor.   The problem is the little things that seem to always get in his way and I think they are a direct result of a lack of concentration on the court.  He is constantly in foul trouble and they aren’t good fouls.  They are the type that are 50 feet away from the basket and for no purpose.  Watching him is like watching a player sabotaging himself.  He has all the ability to be a pro but won’t sniff the NBA as a result.  He’s the college version of Darius Miles, all the tools but something is missing.

Coach Knight discussed that concentration makes up everything with basketball and life and drew comparisons on both.  He spoke of focus and how to be in the moment only thinking of what you are currently undertaking.  If you aren’t concentrating and focusing on what you are involved with you aren’t giving 100% and I loved that.  You can disagree with the man about how he gets things done but as a coach he has to draw your respect.

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I keep waiting for this streak to end and for Houston to come back to reality and it isn’t happening.  Yao Ming has his once a year injury and the Rockets keep winning.  I’ve only seen them play once since Yao was out and I was more than impressed with them.  First thing I love about them is Coach Adelman.  This guy is a great NBA coach who is a master with chemistry and getting the ball in the right players hands.  Second, the Rockets have a ton of excellent role players who know exactly what they have to do.  From Luis Scola, Luther Head, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and Dikembe they get exactly what they are looking for and this team plays great defense.  Third, you have to love that they are doing this while playing in the western conference.  This is arguably the best conference from top to bottom in the history of the league and the Rockets are nearing the top of that. 

This team was at 24-20 when they started their streak and a few things happened.  They learned how to play without Tracy McGrady and when he came back they were that much better.  Now they are doing the same thing with Yao Ming.  They miss Yao but obviously not that much.  Luis Scola is doing great in his role.  He is more mobile and just as good a rebounder.  Yao isn’t much of a shot blocker for his size anyway so defensively they might be better.  I love the rotation with Chuck Hayes because every winning team needs the player who is on the court and willing to do the little things without scoring.  I love that about Chuck and Luis together.

Don’t forget that Mount Mutombo can still play defense.  He is a big body and a gifted defender.  He can still block shots with the best of them and gives them a solid lift off the bench on defense.  Don’t get me wrong, on offense few players in the history of the sport are worse, but he deserves the money he’s making in Houston.

I don’t expect the Rockets to make it much further in their quest for 30 straight because they play a series of tough road games coming up, but then again I never expected them to win 20 in a row either.

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That’s the latest rumor revolving around the injury plagued New York guard.  This isn’t even going to be responded to by the Pistons who are a franchise that lives and dies by it’s team chemistry.  Marbury is a curse to every team he is on and always will be with his me first attitude.  Frankly, the guy has worn out his welcome and is on his way out of the league once his contract expires.  I can’t tell you how happy i’ll be when Marbury is out of the league for good and we don’t have to put up with his endless horrible predictions of championships and all star games.  He is the anti Nostradamus of pro sports.  If Marbury predicts you will do well then you won’t, if he says your team is playoff bound then start to book your offseason plans.  This one will not happen.  I can only think of 2-3 places that Marbury could end up: New York, New Jersey or Foreign. 

Other NBA story lines:  Shaq and the Suns beat the streaking Spurs the other night in a game that showed really why the Suns got Shaq.  He showed energy, hustle and purpose and was a force again.  He’ll never be the same SHaq but he can still play ball and they beat the Spurs at their game.  I liked to see it.  The problem is that they are still sub .500 since he showed up and are in danger of falling out of the playoffs in a tough conference.

Dwyane Wade announced he’ll miss the rest of the season for the Heat after undergoing another knee procedure.  The Heat are close to securing a top 3 spot in the lottery next year and this can’t hurt their chances.  In fact, Pat Riley was seen at the Indiana/Penn St. game last night scouting Eric Gordon of the Hoosiers.  The Hoosiers lost in overtime thank heaven. 

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Stick Boston in the West and see how they would fare against these teams.  I can’t see the East competing this season in the finals and it points to the reasons why some believe that the NBA should just go to the 16 best teams in the playoffs format instead of the EAst vs West that is currently employed.  Let’s look at this:

The New Jersey Nets sit at a .426 winning percentage and are in the 8th spot.  The Charlotte Hornets are a 5 game winning streak away from that despite being at only .361.  That’s how bad it is in the East. 

 In the West, two teams sit outside of the playoffs right now despite being over .500.  Denver would be a top 4 team in the East and easily challenge Boston as the team to beat there.  Since they are in the West they still have some serious work to do just to get in the playoffs and they are playing at a .600 clip right now. 

The East has 3 teams over .600 while the West has 9.  Truly, can you imagine the Western teams in the East?  Houston has rattled off 17 wins in a row and is in the 5th position despite losing arguably their best player.  The Jazz have the leagues best home record.  The Sacramento Kings would be a solid squad in the East with there .443 winning percentage but the season is a failure because of the division they play in. 

As a fan of the NBA it is time to let the best teams play despite what conference they are in.  The league needs a shot in the arm and this would provide it.  I’d love to see Boston play Denver in an early round or have a finals of San Antonio and Los Angeles instead of the WEstern Finals.  As it sits now that is the championship anyway, isn’t it?

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Just when it seems like College Basketball has barely started it is already March and time for the madness to begin.  I watched the end of the Marquette/Georgetown game and that was crazy.  It was a tournament type game atmosphere and the plays down the stretch were unbelievable.  Marquette should’ve won if not for a terrible call by a ref with 3 seconds left that put a Georgetown player at the line.  A great game nonetheless.

It’s the time of year when fans get nervous if their team is on the bubble and they need one more road win or a convincing home win to put them over the top.  I don’t have to worry much this year because I’m an Illinois fan and they aren’t going anywhere for the first time in a long time.  It’s tough knowing they won’t be playing in the tourney this year but at least I have the conference tournament coming up to pin my hopes on.  You never know what can happen there.  I know some teams have no business being in the tourney like:

Kentucky- I don’t care how well they are doing in a weak weak SEC this season because they got beat by a lot of terrible basketball teams with none being worse than Gardner-Webb and at Vanderbilt by 40.  Both have to leave Kentucky home.  They’ll be back next year and be a force for years.  Tubby left them for a reason and it was because the cupboard was pretty bare.

Ohio St:  They have to be out after getting killed at Minnesota.  Minnesota isnt’ that good and proved that by getting beat by 20 at home against Illinois.  Ohio St started the year strong but they are finishing it weaker.  A lot of talk has been made about how great Thad Matta is as a recruiter but Koufos might leave at the end of the year and really put them in a bind.  We’ll see but they should be NIT bound.

Syracuse:  They need to stay home as well.  They have a sub .500 conference record in the toughest conference in the land but they struggle.  Recently they lost to Pittsburgh at home in a game that they absolutely had to have.  They sit 17-12 and need to rattle off some wins to get in.  The other two teams I dont’ think are in unless they win their conference tourney.  Syracuse can still get in because they play in such a tough conference.

Nevertheless this is a bit early and some work is still to be done before the brackets are announced.  I just wouldn’t mind seeing some schools left out in the cold like me and my ILLINI.

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